Bond yields sank — so why aren't mortgage rates following?

Core Insights - A mixed picture in mortgage rates emerged following the U.S. government shutdown, with new jobs data raising economic concerns [1][2] - Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.08%, down 11 basis points from the previous week, influencing mortgage rates [1][2] - The average 30-year mortgage rate showed varied movements, with Freddie Mac reporting it at 6.34%, up 4 basis points from the previous week [4][5] Mortgage Rate Movements - The 15-year fixed mortgage rate increased by 6 basis points to an average of 5.55%, reflecting a 30 basis point rise from the previous year [5] - Zillow reported a 30-year fixed average of 6.51%, down 8 basis points from the previous week, but up 3 basis points from the day before [5] - Lender Price data indicated a flat 30-year fixed rate at 6.44% week-over-week [6] Economic Influences - The decline in Treasury yields was attributed to a report showing a loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs, which likely influenced investor behavior more than the government shutdown [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut the funds rate did not meet investor expectations, leading to increased mortgage rates [8] - Market reactions to the government shutdown were anticipated, with traders likely having already adjusted their positions prior to the event [9] Market Outlook - Uncertainty from the government shutdown may lead to increased market volatility, but stability is expected in the short term [10] - Current mortgage rates present opportunities for potential home buyers, remaining below the average of the past year [10] - Increased pending home sales indicate growing buyer confidence, although affordability remains a challenge [11] - Caution is advised as new listings are at a historic low, driven by hesitant sellers amid sluggish demand [12]