Dollar Falls on US Government Shutdown and Weak Labor Market News

Economic Indicators - The US September ADP employment change unexpectedly fell by 32,000, marking the largest decline in 2.5 years, and August's figure was revised down to a loss of 3,000 from a previously reported gain of 54,000 [2] - The US September ISM manufacturing index rose by 0.4 to a 7-month high of 49.1, exceeding expectations of 49.0, while the ISM price paid sub-index fell by 1.8 to an 8-month low of 61.9, below expectations of 62.7 [3] Currency Movements - The dollar index (DXY) is down by 0.19% at a 1-week low, influenced by the US government shutdown and weak labor market data, which increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut to 100% for the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - The euro (EUR/USD) is up by 0.09% at a 1-week high, supported by dollar weakness and an upward revision to the Eurozone September S&P manufacturing PMI [4] - The USD/JPY is down by 0.61%, with the yen reaching a 2-week high against the dollar due to increased safe-haven demand following the US government shutdown and positive Japanese economic indicators [7] Central Bank Policies - The market anticipates that the ECB is nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to implement approximately two more rate cuts by the end of the year [5] - Swaps are pricing in a 1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the October 30 policy meeting [6]