Abundant Crude Supplies Weigh on Prices

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing a significant selloff, with crude reaching a 4-month low and gasoline a 10.5-month low, driven by concerns over a global supply glut as OPEC+ plans to increase production levels [2][3] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is expected to discuss fast-tracking supply hikes of approximately 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in three monthly installments starting in November, aiming to reverse a 1.66 million bpd supply cut [3] - OPEC's crude production rose by 400,000 bpd in August to 28.55 million bpd, marking the highest output in over two years [3] Group 2: Global Oil Market Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record surplus in the global oil market next year, projecting a surplus of 3.33 million bpd, which is 360,000 bpd higher than previous estimates [4] - The resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdish region is expected to add 500,000 bpd to global supplies, further pressuring crude prices [5] Group 3: Demand and Storage Trends - India's crude imports fell by 2.9% year-on-year in August to 19.6 million metric tons, indicating reduced demand from one of the world's largest importers [6] - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers increased by 3.7% week-on-week to 81.95 million barrels, suggesting a bearish outlook for oil prices [6]