决胜“十四五”丨消费“主引擎”动能强劲

Core Insights - The consumer market in China remains the second largest globally, with a retail sales growth rate of 5.5% annually over the past four years, and is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, contributing approximately 60% to economic growth on average [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant resilience and vitality in the consumer market, with an optimization and upgrading of consumption structure, and a continuous release of quality demand [1] - The implementation of the trade-in policy has significantly boosted consumer purchasing enthusiasm, with an expected sales increase of 2.9 trillion yuan benefiting around 400 million people by mid-2025 [2] - Service consumption is increasingly dominating household spending, with expenditures on tourism, beauty, housekeeping, and education surpassing those on goods [2] Group 2: New Consumption Models - The application of digital technology has enriched consumer experiences, with online retail sales maintaining the top position globally for 12 consecutive years, and digital consumption expected to reach 23.8 trillion yuan by 2024, accounting for 44.2% of total consumption [4] - Traditional retail formats are innovating through the integration of cultural and entertainment experiences, creating new consumption scenarios and models [4] Group 3: Market Expansion - From 2021 to 2024, China imported consumer goods worth 7.4 trillion yuan, with a growing number of global quality products entering the market through cross-border e-commerce and import expos [7] - The influx of foreign tourists for shopping is increasing, with measures like "240-hour visa-free" and "tax refund on departure" enhancing the shopping experience in China [7] - In 2024, inbound tourist spending is projected to reach 94.2 billion USD, reflecting a 77.8% growth, indicating a strong conversion of tourism flow into shopping increments [8]