芝加哥联储主席称劳动力市场依旧稳健 利率或有“相当大”下调空间

Group 1 - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Goolsbee stated that the latest internal research indicates the U.S. labor market remains stable, suggesting a robust overall economic growth [1] - There are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent of future interest rate cuts, with some officials concerned about a potential weakening labor market while others focus on high inflation [1] - The median forecast from the dot plot after last month's monetary policy meeting indicates two rate cuts are expected in 2025, with Goolsbee emphasizing significant room for rate reductions if inflation moves towards the 2% target [1] Group 2 - Due to the government shutdown, official economic data releases are delayed, prompting Federal Reserve officials to seek alternative data for decision-making, with Goolsbee mentioning that the unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged in September [1] - Mortgage rates in the U.S. have risen for the second consecutive week, with the average 30-year fixed rate increasing to 6.34%, up from 6.3% the previous week [1] - Despite rising mortgage rates, homebuyers are responding to the significant drop in loan rates earlier in the year, as evidenced by a five-month high in existing home sales contracts in August, although many buyers remain cautious due to concerns over borrowing costs and economic outlook [1] Group 3 - Analysts predict that mortgage rates are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term due to volatility in U.S. Treasury yields and the government shutdown [2] - The timing of the government shutdown is particularly sensitive, coinciding with the anticipated first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which could create uncertainty for future central bank decisions if key data releases are delayed [2] - It is noted that the Federal Reserve operates independently, and the October meeting will not be directly affected, but prolonged shutdowns could amplify potential impacts on the market and policy [2]