美银行体系准备金八连降跌破3万亿美元 美联储缩表或接近拐点

Core Points - The U.S. banking system's reserves have declined for eight consecutive weeks, falling below $3 trillion for the first time, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential early end to balance sheet reduction [1] - As of the week ending October 1, bank reserves decreased by $20.1 billion to $2.98 trillion, marking the lowest level since January of this year [1] Group 1 - The decline in reserves is closely linked to the U.S. Treasury's increased debt issuance, which has accelerated since the debt ceiling was raised in July, absorbing market liquidity [4] - This situation directly impacts the liabilities on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, including the overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) tool and commercial bank reserves [4] - As RRP gradually depletes, commercial bank reserves at the Federal Reserve have become the primary source of liquidity outflow, with foreign banks experiencing a more significant decline in cash assets compared to domestic banks [4] Group 2 - The changes occur while the Federal Reserve continues its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, which involves reducing its holdings of Treasury and MBS to tighten financial system liquidity [4] - Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction to avoid market disruptions, despite Chairman Powell stating that bank reserves remain "ample" [4] - Recent signs in the funding market suggest that the Federal Reserve may be approaching a critical point regarding reserve levels [4] Group 3 - There is inconsistency within the Federal Reserve regarding the definition of "ample" reserves, with Vice Chair Bowman emphasizing the need to shrink the balance sheet as much as possible to bring reserves closer to "scarce" levels [4] - Governor Waller estimated that the minimum reserve level is approximately $2.7 trillion [4]