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Rough Road for RIVN: Production & EV Headwinds Add Fog to Outlook
Youtubeยท2025-10-03 00:01

Core Viewpoint - Rivian's stock is experiencing a significant decline despite reporting strong delivery numbers for the third quarter, indicating broader market challenges in the electric vehicle sector [1][2]. Company Performance - Rivian delivered 13,000 units and produced 10,720 vehicles in the last quarter, which annualizes to approximately 52,000 to 54,000 units, significantly lower than Tesla's production of about 500,000 cars per quarter [6][7]. - The company has seen a stock increase of around 28% over the past year, but it has dropped significantly from a high of $180 in late 2020 to early 2021 [5]. Financial Metrics - Rivian reported sales of $5.1 billion over the last four quarters, but incurred a net income loss of $3.5 billion, indicating a negative gross margin with costs of goods sold at approximately $5.3 billion [8][11]. - The company has around $7.5 billion in cash, which equates to about two years of operational cash available [11]. Market Context - The expiration of federal tax credits for new and used electric vehicles at the end of September has impacted consumer purchasing behavior, contributing to the stock's decline [3][4]. - Rivian's inability to scale production effectively limits its ability to lower prices and improve profitability, contrasting with Tesla's established scalability and profitability [9][10][12]. Future Outlook - Investors should monitor Rivian's guidance on production numbers; achieving production targets of 60,000 to 70,000 units per quarter could positively influence stock performance [12].