新一轮增产呼之欲出！欧佩克坚决抢市场会压垮油价吗

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have dropped to a four-month low, with WTI crude nearing the $60 mark, influenced by the U.S. government shutdown and potential production increases from OPEC+ [1] Supply Side Outlook - OPEC+ is scheduled to hold an online meeting on October 5 to discuss production arrangements for November, with its members accounting for about half of global oil supply [2] - Since April, OPEC+ has abandoned its production cut strategy, with a total of 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts being fully canceled by the end of September [2] - OPEC+ is expected to confirm an increase of at least 13.7 thousand barrels per day in November production [2][3] Geopolitical Disturbances - Geopolitical factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may significantly impact oil prices, with Russia implementing partial bans on diesel exports and facing fuel shortages [4] - The EU's proposed sanctions on third-country oil entities and the U.S. calls for NATO allies to stop purchasing Russian energy are under scrutiny [4] - Iran's nuclear program sanctions have been reinstated, with Iran warning of a strong response, potentially affecting its oil exports [5] Market Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year from 685 thousand barrels per day to 737 thousand barrels per day, while OPEC maintains its demand forecast unchanged [6][7] - The IEA predicts that global oil supply will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day this year, driven by non-OPEC+ countries like the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Guyana [6] - The potential for geopolitical risks to escalate is acknowledged, with OPEC+ aiming to regain market share despite the complexities of current supply dynamics [7]