新一轮增产呼之欲出，欧佩克坚决抢市场会压垮油价吗

Core Insights - International oil prices are experiencing a decline, with WTI crude nearing the $60 mark, marking a four-month low due to concerns over demand from the U.S. government shutdown and potential production increases from OPEC+ [1] Supply Side Outlook - OPEC+ is scheduled to hold an online meeting on October 5 to discuss production levels for November, with the organization accounting for about half of global oil production [2] - Since April, OPEC+ has abandoned its production cut strategy, with a total reduction of 5.85 million barrels per day at its peak, now moving towards increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [2][3] - Despite ongoing production increases, OPEC+ has only achieved 75% of its production increase target from April to August, falling short by nearly 500,000 barrels per day [3] - Iraq has resumed oil exports through a pipeline to Turkey after a two-and-a-half-year hiatus, potentially adding up to 230,000 barrels per day to international markets [3] Geopolitical Disturbances - Geopolitical factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to significantly impact oil prices, with Russia implementing partial bans on diesel exports and facing fuel shortages [4] - The potential for sanctions against Russia's oil sector and the ongoing conflict complicate the situation, with Russian oil exports nearing their lowest levels since 2020 [4] - Iran's oil exports are also under scrutiny due to renewed sanctions, with an average daily export of over 1.6 million barrels expected from June to August 2025 [5] Market Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil demand growth forecast for this year from 685,000 barrels per day to 737,000 barrels per day, while also increasing supply growth expectations [6] - OPEC maintains its oil demand forecast, expecting a daily increase of 1.29 million barrels this year, supported by resilient consumer spending in major economies [7] - The global economic growth forecast remains stable at 3% for this year and 3.1% for next year, with OPEC emphasizing the importance of meeting oil demand consistently [7]