美元突变，三十年最低！

Core Viewpoint - The share of the US dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves is gradually declining, reaching its lowest level in 30 years at 56.32% by the end of Q2 2023, a decrease of 1.47 percentage points from the end of Q1 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar's Decline in Reserves - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the decline in the dollar's share is primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations, with the dollar index dropping over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973 [3][6]. - Despite the decline in the dollar's share, if exchange rate changes are excluded, the dollar's share in global reserves remained stable in Q2 2023 [3][6]. - The dollar's performance against other currencies, such as a 7.9% depreciation against the euro and over 11% against the Swiss franc in the first half of the year, contributed significantly to the reduction in its reserve share [3][6]. Group 2: Other Currencies' Performance - The euro's share in global central bank reserves increased to over 21%, the highest since 2021, despite a decrease in its total holdings, attributed to its significant appreciation in Q2 2023 [3][6]. - The IMF noted that the dollar's share in global reserves fell by approximately 92% due to exchange rate factors from April to June 2023 [3][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook on the Dollar - Analysts from UBS predict that the dollar may weaken further in the coming months due to the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, large unhedged dollar-denominated overseas investments, and high US twin deficits [6]. - Noted economist Hong Hao anticipates a significant depreciation of the dollar over the next 5 to 7 years due to worsening US fiscal and trade deficits and credit deterioration [6].