程实：在全球复苏反复中寻找中国式确定｜国庆大咖谈

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The global economy is at a critical juncture characterized by high debt, frequent trade frictions, and escalating geopolitical conflicts, leading to systemic risks and a fluctuating recovery path [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to restart interest rate cuts in September, with an accelerated pace expected over the next nine months, adds to global financial uncertainty [2][3] - The rise of new productive forces, including artificial intelligence, clean energy, and digital finance, presents opportunities for breaking through economic bottlenecks and achieving a new equilibrium [3][4] Group 2: China's Economic Stability - China's economy demonstrates a clear and stable growth path, driven by domestic consumption and innovation, amidst global economic turmoil [4][6] - The release of consumption potential is supported by effective fiscal and monetary policies, which have improved consumer confidence and reduced precautionary savings [4][5] - The integration of artificial intelligence and digital economy is accelerating the upgrade of China's industrial chain, positioning the country favorably in the global technology competition [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - By 2025, the world economy may face both downward risks and upward opportunities, reflecting a dual tension that could lead to either deeper instability or a higher-level new equilibrium [3][6] - China's long-term strategic and institutional advantages provide a reliable anchor for future global order, offering a predictable force in an uncertain world [6]