“稳增长”政策工具箱会否在四季度开启？

Core Viewpoint - The Asian markets, particularly China's A-shares, have shown significant gains in Q3 2025, driven by changes in liquidity, industrial policy, and improved external financial conditions, despite a weak economic backdrop [1][2]. Market Performance - Major global stock indices displayed distinct regional characteristics, with Asian markets leading the gains. The ChiNext Index surged by 50.4%, followed by the Sci-Tech 50 Index at 49.02% and the Shenzhen Component Index at 29.25% [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.73%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 11.56%. All top fourteen indices with the highest gains were from Asia, with five from A-shares [1]. Economic Indicators - Economic fundamentals remain weak, with August data on consumption, production, and investment showing a downturn. The anticipated GDP growth rate for Q3 is around 4.8% [1][2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan to support major projects, aimed at addressing insufficient effective demand [1]. Policy Implications - The new financial tool is expected to be funded through central bank re-lending and increased credit limits, which is crucial for stimulating investment [1]. - The macroeconomic policy will focus on positive incentives, improving expectations, and enhancing consumer demand, with a need for timely fiscal measures to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [2]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is potential for further monetary easing, with expectations of a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate reduction by year-end [3]. - The external environment, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, is favorable for domestic policy adjustments, potentially leading to increased foreign capital inflow [3]. Market Dynamics - Despite the overall index gains, individual stock performance has been mixed, with a median decline of 2.44% among A-shares in September, indicating that the rally is driven by a few high-growth sectors rather than a broad market uptrend [3][4]. - High-growth sectors such as AI, new energy, and non-ferrous metals have attracted significant capital, with margin financing reaching a historical high of 2.4 trillion yuan [4]. Future Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in Q4, supported by anticipated foreign capital inflows and improved long-term investment mechanisms [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to catalyze growth in the AI sector, with a projected 40% increase in China's intelligent computing capacity in 2025 [4]. Risks and Considerations - The market should remain cautious of potential risks, including short-term volatility due to prior gains and ongoing uncertainties in the global economy and domestic policy implementation [5]. - The disparity between capital market performance and real economic recovery raises questions about the sustainability of the current market rally [5].