Sugar Price Slide as Thailand Ramps Up Sugar Production

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced a significant decline, with March NY world sugar closing down 2.83% and December London ICE white sugar down 3.31% [1][2] Sugar Production Outlook - Thailand's sugar production is projected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, contributing to downward pressure on sugar prices [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 18% year-on-year to 3.872 MMT in the second half of August, although cumulative output for 2025-26 through August fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [5] - India's potential diversion of 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports, with expectations rising from 2 MMT to 4 MMT [6] Global Sugar Supply and Demand - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, an improvement from a 4.88 MMT deficit in 2024/25, with global production expected to rise by 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT [7] - A global sugar surplus of 2.8 MMT is projected for the upcoming 2025/26 season, contrasting with a deficit of 4.7 MMT in the previous season [4]