Huaan Securities(SH:600909) 智通财经网·2025-10-03 06:55Core Insights - The demand for green methanol is expected to exceed 9 million tons by 2030, driven by existing orders for methanol-powered container ships and the promotion of green methanol applications in China [1][3][4] - The shipping industry's carbon reduction is urgent, with green methanol emerging as a key solution due to its low or zero carbon emissions [2][3] Industry Developments - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to pass a net-zero emissions framework, requiring a 20% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 compared to 2008 levels, which will promote the development of the green methanol industry [3] - The EU's inclusion of the shipping industry in its carbon trading system further encourages the transition to green fuels [3] Domestic Initiatives - China is actively promoting green methanol, with policies aimed at establishing a green fuel supply system by 2035 and accelerating port infrastructure for methanol refueling [4][6] - As of 2025, over 60 green methanol projects are underway in China, with a production capacity exceeding 8 million tons per year, positioning the country to potentially dominate global production by 2030 [6] Production Capacity and Technology - Green methanol production is in its early stages, with capacity expected to expand from 1.7 million tons in 2025 to 39.3 million tons by 2030, driven by numerous planned and under-construction projects [5][6] - The production cost of green methanol is currently 3 to 5 times that of traditional methanol, with future cost reductions dependent on technological advancements and process improvements [5]