The AI boom could burst like a bubble if tech companies miss their growth forecasts, top economist Steve Hanke says
Yahoo Finance·2025-10-01 19:52

Core Viewpoint - The AI boom may face a collapse similar to the dot-com bubble, with concerns about whether the current market exuberance is rational or irrational [1][4]. Industry Insights - The term "irrational exuberance" was previously used to describe the market mood during the tech surge from 1982 to 1999, which saw US stocks increase 13-fold [2]. - The Nasdaq index fell nearly 80% from its peak in March 2000 to its trough in October 2002, while the S&P 500 dropped around 45% during the same period, indicating the potential for significant market corrections [2]. Company Projections - Nvidia expects a year-on-year revenue growth of about 54% this quarter, projecting revenue to reach $54 billion, with its stock surging approximately 12-fold since the start of 2023 [5]. - OpenAI anticipates its revenue will more than triple this year to $13 billion [5]. - Oracle projects its cloud infrastructure revenue to increase 14-fold to $144 billion by May 2030, significantly surpassing its total revenue of $57 billion from the last financial year, with its stock up around 240% since the beginning of 2023 [5]. - Palantir expects its annual revenue to grow 45% this year to over $4.1 billion, driven by an 85% increase in US commercial revenue to over $1.3 billion, with its stock rising about 27-fold since the start of 2023 [5].