日本自民党总裁选举明日来袭！对冲基金加紧布局：避险、赌日元升值……

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming leadership election of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4 is expected to significantly influence the country's economic policies and market dynamics, with hedge funds preparing various strategies to capitalize on potential outcomes [1][3]. Group 1: Candidates' Economic Policies - The leading candidates, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi, have distinct economic approaches, with Takaichi favoring aggressive fiscal expansion and Koizumi focusing on wage growth and investment through tax surplus [1][3]. - Takaichi's victory could lead to a slowdown in interest rate hikes, while Koizumi is seen as more inclined towards gradual reforms aimed at increasing wages and productivity [3]. Group 2: Hedge Fund Strategies - Hedge funds like Epic Partners Investments are poised to buy stocks once market leaders are identified, anticipating significant price movements based on the election outcome [1]. - K2 Asset Management is preparing to profit from a potential appreciation of the yen post-election, adjusting their strategies to align with Japan's unique political landscape [3]. - Orbis Investment Management is closely monitoring market volatility that may arise from Takaichi's potential victory, viewing it as an opportunity to increase holdings in local market stocks [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - There is a notable divergence in market positioning, with asset managers bullish on the yen contrasting with hedge funds that are shorting it, reaching the highest level of disagreement since 2007 [5]. - Some investors, like Calvin Yeoh from Blue Edge Advisors, are opting for gold as a hedge against various risks, moving to a neutral stance on the yen ahead of the election results [7]. - Others, such as Atsuko Tsuchiya from Atom Capital Management, are focusing on the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike, indicating that bank stocks have already priced in the likelihood of an October rate increase [9].