BLS Data Halts, But Chicago Fed Sees Steady 4.34% Unemployment: Private Sources Flag 'Low Fire, Low Hire' Holiday Risk - SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY)

Core Insights - The Chicago Fed predicts a steady unemployment rate of 4.34% for September 2025, relying on real-time data due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data releases [1][2] - Private data sources indicate a cooling labor market, with weak holiday hiring plans potentially impacting payrolls through year-end [3][4] Labor Market Analysis - The Chicago Fed's analysis shows the unemployment rate unchanged from August, with layoffs at 2.10% and hiring rates for unemployed workers at 45.22%, both slightly down from the previous month [2] - Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank, notes that alternative data sources suggest a "low hire, low fire, low gear" job market, with Revelio Labs estimating 60,100 jobs added in September, contrasting with ADP's reported decline of 32,000 [4][5] - Hiring intentions have plummeted 70% year-over-year according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, while the Cleveland Fed's WARN Act index dropped 22% to 14,000, indicating minimal planned layoffs [4][5] Economic Pressures - Broader economic pressures include low consumer confidence, tariff impacts on margins, and a potential drop in auto sales following the expiration of EV subsidies [5] - AI-driven growth is noted to be capital-intensive, creating fewer jobs and potentially widening the gap between economic output and employment [5] - The government shutdown could shave 0.1-0.2% off GDP growth weekly, with Comerica forecasting a 0.25% Fed rate cut in late October [5] Market Reactions - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) saw slight increases, with SPY up 0.12% and QQQ up 0.41% [7]