跳水还是涨价？黄金周买机票就像买股票

Core Insights - The upcoming "super long golden week" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to see a record high of 19.2 million passengers in civil aviation, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China [1][4]. Group 1: Ticket Price Dynamics - The ticket prices for flights during this holiday period are experiencing significant fluctuations, resembling stock market trading, with travelers uncertain about when to purchase tickets [2][3]. - Some routes have seen substantial price drops close to the travel date, while others have experienced notable price increases, leading to mixed experiences among travelers [2][3]. - The average ticket price for the upcoming holiday is relatively high, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% to 841 yuan as of September 14, and a further increase of 9.2% to 804 yuan by September 28 [4]. Group 2: Travel Demand and Capacity - The overall demand for air travel is expected to reach new heights, with a 3.6% increase in passenger volume compared to last year, driven by the extended holiday and high tourism interest [4]. - Major air routes between key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu are anticipated to see the highest passenger throughput, with over 17 million expected to travel through ten major international aviation hubs [4]. Group 3: International Flight Trends - The number of international flights is also on the rise, with an estimated 16,000 flights planned for the holiday, recovering to 94.1% of 2019 levels, primarily focused on Southeast Asia and East Asia [5]. - New direct international routes have been launched, enhancing travel options for outbound tourism, with high passenger loads reported on popular routes to Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [5].