The Squawk Box jobs report: Current state of the labor market

Core Insights - The absence of the official jobs report due to the government shutdown has led to alternative methods of assessing the employment situation in September [1][2] - Insights from industry experts indicate a mixed outlook on the job market, with some sectors showing declines while others remain stable [8][16] Employment Trends - The NFIB hiring intentions survey indicates that while many small businesses have job openings, very few are being filled, resulting in a negative net increase in employment [5][6] - Job postings across various sectors have declined, particularly in healthcare and restaurants, which are seen as leading indicators of consumer spending [8][9] - Retail and higher education showed slight increases in job postings, with retail up by approximately 2% [9] Economic Uncertainty - A high level of uncertainty in the economy is affecting hiring decisions, with 90% of firms reporting few or no qualified applicants for open positions [12][13] - The uncertainty index is at one of its highest levels in the past 50 years, leading businesses to hesitate in making hiring commitments [12] Sector-Specific Insights - Technology sector spending is robust, but much of the hiring is for AI roles that may replace existing jobs rather than create new ones [15][16] - The overall job market is experiencing a decline across multiple sectors, despite some positive indicators in retail and higher education [16] Federal Reserve Implications - The lack of a jobs report may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to respond effectively to the job market, potentially delaying interest rate cuts that could support hiring [18][20] - Historical data suggests that had the Fed adjusted rates earlier, it might have positively influenced hiring in Q4 [20]