Fed's Miran Doesn't Think the Neutral Rate Is Zero

Group 1 - The importance of high-quality data for monetary policy decisions is emphasized, with a hope that data will be available before significant decisions are made [2][3] - Rising inflation, particularly in food and gas prices, is a concern, but there is no forecast that these prices will continue to rise indefinitely [3][4] - The cost of housing is identified as the largest component of inflation, with expectations of significant disinflation driven by changes in population growth [4][5] Group 2 - Current economic conditions include inflation at approximately 3% and unemployment at 4.3%, with growth reported by the Atlanta Fed in the third quarter [5][6] - Previous policies have pushed interest rates higher, influenced by the highest population growth in decades and significant fiscal deficits [6][7] - A model based on housing changes is used to forecast inflation, indicating that regulatory changes could expand output and affect economic conditions [7][9]