经济引擎熄火？美国9月服务业PMI近15年来首次落在荣枯线位置 价格压力依旧高企

Core Insights - The ISM reported that the US services sector unexpectedly stagnated in September, with the services PMI index at 50, a decrease of 2 percentage points from August, marking the first time since January 2010 that it has fallen to the neutral line [1] - The services sector, which contributes approximately three-quarters of the US GDP, continues to show overall economic growth for the 64th consecutive month, although the growth rate has significantly slowed [1] Economic Activity - The business activity index dropped to 49.9 in September, down 5.1 percentage points from August, entering contraction territory for the first time since May 2020 [1] - The new orders index remained in the expansion zone but fell significantly to 50.4, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] Employment Trends - The employment index has been in contraction for the fourth consecutive month, recording 47.2, a slight increase of 0.7 percentage points from August [2] - Companies reported increased employee turnover and delayed hiring due to cost and market uncertainties, with AI improving productivity in some sectors, affecting traditional hiring needs [2] Supplier and Price Dynamics - The supplier delivery index rose to 52.6, indicating slower delivery times, the highest level since February of this year [2] - The prices index remained high at 69.4, reflecting ongoing cost pressures in the services sector, with the index above 60 for ten consecutive months [2] Inventory and Backlog - The inventory index shifted from expansion to contraction, recording 47.8, the lowest level since January, as some companies reduced inventory in anticipation of falling commodity prices [2] - The backlog of orders index, while still in contraction, rose significantly to 47.3, indicating a slowdown in the rate of contraction [3] Sector Performance - Among 18 service industries, 10 reported growth in September, a decrease of 2 from August, with growth seen in sectors like accommodation, healthcare, and finance [3] - Sectors such as real estate and related industries continue to be a drag on the economy [3] Overall Economic Outlook - The ISM noted that despite weak service sector data, the September PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of approximately 0.4%, indicating economic slowdown but not recession [3]