Fed's Miran Says He's Ready to Change His View on Inflation If Housing Jumps

Group 1 - The importance of high-quality data for monetary policy decisions is emphasized, especially in the context of the current government shutdown affecting data availability [2][3] - Inflation is noted to be rising, particularly in food and gasoline prices, which are significant concerns for the public [4] - The cost of housing is highlighted as a major component of inflation, with expectations of significant disinflation in the services component driven by changes in the housing market [5][7] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) typically meets every six weeks, and there is hope that necessary economic data will be available by the time decisions need to be made [3] - Current economic conditions include inflation at approximately 3% and unemployment at 4.3%, which are historically low [7] - The Atlanta Fed reported a growth rate of 3.8% in the third quarter, suggesting that economic models would not support a near-zero neutral rate under these conditions [8] Group 3 - The discussion includes the impact of fiscal deficits, which are currently about $400 billion lower than the previous fiscal year, contributing to a tighter monetary policy environment [28][29] - The regulatory environment is changing, with expectations of increased deregulation, which could expand potential output faster than actual output [14][30] - The relationship between financial conditions and monetary policy is explored, indicating that financial conditions can be influenced by non-monetary factors [29][30] Group 4 - The persistence of services inflation, particularly driven by housing costs, is identified as a key factor in inflation dynamics [33] - The expectation is that shelter rents will decrease, leading to a reduction in overall inflation [34][35] - The discussion on tariffs and their impact on inflation suggests that the burden of tariffs primarily falls on foreign producers rather than American consumers [40][42] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve's approach to inflation targets and the complexities of measuring inflation are discussed, with a focus on the challenges of public perception regarding inflation [21][23] - The need for forward-looking forecasts in monetary policy is emphasized, particularly in light of significant population growth shocks [18][19] - The potential for tax cuts to stimulate economic growth while tariffs may not lead to increased consumer inflation is analyzed [38][39]