The Monthly Manufacturing Numbers Are In – What a 49.1 PMI Means for Small Carriers in the Months Ahead

Core Insights - The September 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 49.1, indicating the seventh consecutive month of contraction in U.S. manufacturing [1][3] - A PMI score below 50 signifies contraction, which affects freight movement, particularly for small carriers and owner-operators [3] - The current PMI suggests a decrease in new orders and backlogs, indicating that shippers are not only producing less but are also not planning for increased production [4] PMI Significance - PMI, or Purchasing Managers Index, is a monthly survey of over 300 manufacturing firms that gauges economic health [3] - A score above 50 indicates growth, while a score below 50 indicates contraction, with the current score of 49.1 reflecting a shrinking manufacturing sector [3] Freight Forecast - New orders and backlogs are declining, leading to reduced freight volumes, particularly impacting dry vans and flatbeds [4] - Downstream shippers, such as those dealing with auto parts and construction materials, should anticipate tighter volumes, while upstream shippers in food-grade and final-mile loads may be more insulated but should remain cautious [7] Opportunities for Carriers - Despite market slowdowns, there are opportunities for well-positioned carriers to grow by leveraging their reputation and operational systems [8] - The current market conditions have led to softer truck prices, allowing carriers to acquire used trucks at lower costs compared to 18 months ago [8] - Shippers are increasingly frustrated with unreliable capacity from less trustworthy operators, creating opportunities for carriers that can provide consistent service [8]