Oil Sees Steepest Weekly Slump In Over 3 Months Ahead Of OPEC+ Meeting

Core Insights - Oil futures experienced their steepest weekly decline in over three and a half months, primarily driven by oversupply concerns in the market [2] Group 1: Market Performance - At the close of trading in London, Brent front-month futures were priced at $64.79 per barrel, reflecting a 1.05% increase but a nearly 6% decline from the previous week [3] - The West Texas Intermediate front-month contract also faced a decline, maintaining a price floor at $61 per barrel [3] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ is considering another potential production hike, following a recent increase of 1.66 million barrels per day on September 7, as part of efforts to unwind previous production cuts [4][5] - The group had previously implemented a 1.65 million bpd cut by key members and an additional 2 million bpd cut across the entire group, which is set to last until Q4 2026 [6] Group 3: Future Production Outlook - OPEC+ is expected to increase production further despite existing oversupply concerns, with a meeting scheduled to decide November's output [6] - Reports suggest that the potential production hike could exceed the previously announced 137,000 bpd for October [7] Group 4: Non-OPEC Production Growth - U.S. crude production remains robust, having reached an all-time high of 13.47 million bpd in April and currently above 13 million bpd [8] - Non-OPEC production is also rising, with contributions from Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Norway, leading to an expected growth of 1.4 million bpd this year [9] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The anticipated oversupply scenario for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 is driven by the combination of OPEC+ production increases and record non-OPEC production levels [7][9] - Despite OPEC+'s production increases, the demand growth projection of 1.3 million bpd for 2025-26 is insufficient to match the non-OPEC production growth [9] - Brent oil futures have struggled to maintain levels above $70 per barrel since June, reflecting a decline of over 16% on a 12-month basis [10]