Cracks are forming in the AI capex boom, warns Morgan Stanley. What to buy and sell.

Core Insights - The growth narrative surrounding data centers and AI capital expenditure is showing signs of weakness, raising concerns among investors [2][4] - Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer highlights that the current market may be closer to a downturn than a recovery, suggesting a critical phase in the AI investment cycle [3][4] Industry Analysis - There is a notable shift in investor sentiment as expectations for fiscal and monetary easing lead to increased interest in cyclical and small-cap stocks, although the sustainability of this bull market is questioned if the AI capital expenditure boom falters [4] - Since 2022, hyperscaler capital expenditure has increased fourfold, which has negatively impacted free cash flow growth, with forecasts indicating a 16% decline in hyperscaler free cash flow over the next year [4] Company Implications - Major AI hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet are under scrutiny as their free cash flow growth slows, leading to questions about their valuations and the need for stricter return-on-investment discipline from investors [5]