Stocks Turn Mixed as Bond Yields Climb

Labor Market - US September Challenger job cuts fell 25.8% year-over-year to 54,064, indicating ongoing weakness in the labor market [1] - Employers have announced plans to cut 946,426 jobs so far this year, the highest for the same period since 2020 [1] - US-based employers announced plans to add almost 205,000 jobs from January to September, the weakest year-to-date stretch since 2009 [1] Government Shutdown - The White House warned that a prolonged government shutdown could lead to widespread dismissals of employees in government programs [2] - Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be furloughed during a shutdown, potentially raising the unemployment rate to 4.7% [2] - The shutdown is causing delays in government reports, including jobless claims and inflation data [3] Stock Market Performance - Stocks initially moved higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs, supported by strength in chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks [4] - Despite the government shutdown, stocks are climbing, although market sentiment is weighed down by the shutdown [5] - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.10%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index is up +0.08% [6] Corporate Earnings Expectations - More than 22% of S&P 500 companies provided guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to beat analysts' expectations, the highest in a year [7] - S&P companies are expected to post +6.9% earnings growth in Q3, an increase from +6.7% as of the end of May [7] Market Focus - Upcoming market focus includes potential trade or tariff news, with expectations for September nonfarm payrolls to increase by +51,000 and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% [8] International Markets - Overseas stock markets are higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 reaching a new record high [9] Interest Rates - The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.0 bp to 4.108%, with safe-haven demand for government debt securities boosted by the ongoing government shutdown [10] - European government bond yields are mixed, with the 10-year German bund yield down -0.6 bp [11] Company Movements - Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) is up more than +24% after announcing a new program for mortgage lenders [14] - Stellantis NV (STLA) is up more than +6% after reporting a +6% increase in Q3 auto deliveries [15] - Equifax (EFX) is down more than -7% following Fair Isaac Corp's announcement, while TransUnion (TRU) is down more than -10% [17]