美加征关税冲击巴西咖啡业

Core Insights - Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, with the southeastern state of Minas Gerais accounting for over half of the country's coffee production [1] - The U.S. has imposed a 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports since August, leading many Brazilian exporters to halt U.S. orders and seek new markets [1][2] - Approximately one-third of unroasted coffee in the U.S. comes from Brazil, with imports expected to reach 8.14 million bags in 2024, representing 33% of total U.S. coffee consumption [1] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee are expected to have a more significant negative impact on American roasters and brands, as they rely heavily on Brazilian imports [2] - Brazilian coffee producers are exploring alternative markets, particularly in China, which has a growing demand for high-quality coffee [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Many Brazilian coffee cooperatives have reported a lack of orders for the U.S. market, with most shipments made before the tariffs took effect [2] - Despite the tariffs, demand from Europe and Australia remains strong, alleviating inventory pressure for Brazilian exporters [2] - The coffee bean storage life is up to three years, allowing exporters to wait for better market conditions [2] Group 3: Price Implications - The primary impact of the tariffs has been an increase in coffee prices, prompting calls for dialogue and negotiation between the U.S. and Brazil [2]