Concerns Over Lower Brazil Sugarcane Yields Boosts Sugar Prices

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.27 (+1.67%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +5.90 (+1.30%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 1.5-month nearest-futures high, while London sugar climbed to a 2-week high due to stronger global demand [3] - NY sugar posted a 4.25-year nearest-futures low and London sugar a 4-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [4] Production and Supply Concerns - Brazil's Center South sugarcane crush in the first half of September increased by +6.9% y/y to 46 million metric tons (MMT), but sugar content in the cane declined to 154.58 kg/ton from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier, indicating lower sugar production [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% y/y to 3.622 MMT, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 53.49% from 47.74% the previous year [5] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-September fell -0.1% y/y to 30.388 MMT [5] Global Supply Outlook - StoneX projected a global sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of -4.7 MMT in the 2024/25 season [4] - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rain of 937.2 mm as of September 30, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [6] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a +19% y/y increase in sugar production to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a -17.5% y/y decline to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT in 2024/25 [7]