选情“三足鼎立” 日本自民党新总裁今日将揭晓

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is set to elect a new party president on October 4, with a temporary national assembly scheduled for October 15 to select a successor to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, marking the second prime minister in over a year for Japan [1] Group 1: Election Dynamics - Five candidates are competing for the LDP presidency: Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, former Minister for Economic Security Takashi Kobayashi, and former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi [2] - The election has evolved into a three-way race among Yoshihide Suga, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Sanae Takaichi, with Suga gaining momentum and surpassing Takaichi in support among party lawmakers [2][3] - Despite Suga's rising support, he remains at a disadvantage in terms of votes from party members and supporters, with predictions suggesting a likely runoff between Koizumi and Takaichi [3] Group 2: Candidates' Policy Positions - The three leading candidates share similar campaign platforms focused on domestic economic and social issues while avoiding sensitive topics [4] - In foreign policy, all candidates advocate for strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance, but they differ in specifics: Suga takes a pragmatic approach towards China, Koizumi emphasizes economic security, and Takaichi maintains a hardline stance [4] - In security matters, Suga proposes achieving a defense spending target of 2% of GDP by the fiscal year 2027, while Koizumi and Takaichi have differing views on military spending and capabilities [4] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - The new LDP president will face significant challenges due to the party's "double minority" status in both houses of the National Diet, necessitating frequent negotiations with opposition parties to advance policies [5] - Public sentiment towards the election is largely negative, with citizens expressing dissatisfaction over stagnant wages and rising living costs, indicating a demand for candidates who can propose clear fiscal stimulus and social welfare policies [6] - The LDP is grappling with a trust crisis due to past scandals, requiring the new president to implement effective reforms to regain public confidence and support [7]