Nat-Gas Prices Give Up Early Gains as US Forecasts Warm

Core Viewpoint - Natural gas prices have declined due to warmer weather forecasts, which may reduce heating demand, despite initial gains from lower-than-expected inventory builds [1][2]. Group 1: Natural Gas Prices - November Nymex natural gas closed down by -0.034 (-0.98%) after reaching a 2.5-month high [1] - Prices fell as long liquidation occurred following updated weather forecasts predicting warmer temperatures in the US for mid-October [1] Group 2: Inventory and Production - The EIA reported a smaller-than-expected increase in natural gas inventories, rising by +53 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending September 26, compared to expectations of +64 bcf [2][6] - Natural gas production in the US is near record highs, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by +0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day [3] - US dry gas production was reported at 107.1 bcf/day, reflecting a +4.9% year-over-year increase [4] Group 3: Demand and Electricity Output - Lower-48 state gas demand was reported at 67.9 bcf/day, down -4.4% year-over-year [4] - US electricity output increased by +5.96% year-over-year to 84,530 GWh for the week ending September 27, which may support gas prices [5] Group 4: Storage Levels - As of September 26, natural gas inventories were +0.4% year-over-year and +5.0% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating adequate supply levels [6] - European gas storage was reported to be 85% full as of September 30, compared to a 5-year seasonal average of 90% [6]