Trading Day: AI, Fed bets sweep aside shutdown jitters

Oil Market - Oil prices are experiencing a significant decline, with Brent and WTI crude futures down nearly 10% in the last week, reaching four-month lows of $64.00 and $60.40 per barrel respectively, due to oversupply concerns [1] - OPEC+ is set to meet and may agree to increase oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, which would be three times the increase for October, contributing to the disinflationary momentum in oil prices [6] AI and Market Trends - OpenAI has reached a valuation of $500 billion after a recent share sale, marking it as the most valuable private company globally, up from a previous valuation of $300 billion [3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached record highs, driven by optimism surrounding the AI boom and expectations for further U.S. interest rate cuts, despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown [5] Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to delay the release of key economic data, including jobless claims and inflation reports, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [10][9] - Analysts suggest that a prolonged government shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points per week, with historical context indicating that a longer shutdown could decrease fourth-quarter real GDP growth by 0.5-1.0 percentage points [13] - The quality and reliability of U.S. economic data are deteriorating, with standard errors in economic surveys increasing by 26% on average compared to 2015-2019, complicating the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions accurately [16][17]