Recession Odds 'Not At 0%,' Says Economist As Small And Medium Businesses Drive Job Losses In ADP Report Amid BLS Shutdown

Core Insights - The ADP Employment report indicates a surprising loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contrary to expectations of a 51,000 job gain, raising concerns about a potential economic downturn [2][5] - The job losses were primarily among small and medium-sized businesses, with small establishments losing 40,000 jobs and medium-sized firms shedding 20,000 positions, while large businesses added 33,000 jobs [4] - A significant downward revision of August's employment figures from a gain of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000 jobs has compounded the negative outlook, showing that private sector employment has declined in three of the last four months [5] Economic Implications - The weak employment data is expected to increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, with analysts suggesting a higher likelihood of a 0.25% cut in the federal funds target at the upcoming October meeting [5] - The ADP report has gained increased significance due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspending its data releases, leading to heightened scrutiny of its implications for the economy [3]