Black Coffee: Something’s Simmering

Group 1 - Starbucks announced it will furlough 900 employees and close approximately 400 stores as part of a $1 billion restructuring plan, resulting in a 1% decline in North American stores for fiscal year 2025 [3] - US consumer confidence declined more than expected in September, with assessments of business conditions and job availability falling for the ninth consecutive month [6] - Inflation remained stable since August, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7% as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [6][10] Group 2 - The three major US stock market indices (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) all finished the week with gains exceeding 1%, driven by investor interest in artificial intelligence [13] - The US national debt is approaching $38 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [16] - The US M2 money supply surged by 4.8% year-over-year in August 2025, reaching a record $22.2 trillion, marking the fastest growth since July 2022 [17] Group 3 - The US Treasury's gold reserves have surpassed $1 trillion in value, which could significantly reduce the need for issuing Treasury bonds if revalued [19] - Analysts are discussing the potential for a gold revaluation, which could further impact the national debt-to-GDP ratio [23][26] - Year-to-date performance for major asset classes shows gold up 45%, silver up 61%, and gold miners proxy up 123% [27]