ChatGPT Could Kill the Reddit Star. Does That Mean You Should Sell RDDT Stock Here?

Core Viewpoint - Reddit's stock experienced a significant decline due to a sharp drop in its references by ChatGPT, which is concerning given the company's high earnings multiple [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - Reddit's stock fell by over 10% after ChatGPT references dropped to 2%, down from an average of 9.7% in August and a peak of over 14% in September [1]. - Despite a nearly 4% rebound in trading, the stock remains under pressure due to its valuation of over 100 times earnings [1]. Group 2: Business Model and Revenue Dependence - Reddit's business model increasingly relies on AI relevance, with lucrative data licensing deals with OpenAI and Google, and exploring dynamic pricing based on citation frequency [2]. - A decline in ChatGPT mentions could weaken Reddit's negotiating leverage significantly [2]. Group 3: Traffic and Advertising Revenue - Google search is the primary driver of Reddit's traffic, and any algorithm changes could adversely affect user growth, which is critical given the current valuations [3]. - Advertising revenue, which constitutes 93% of Reddit's total revenue, surged 84% to $465 million in Q2, marking the fastest growth in three years [3][5]. Group 4: Q2 Financial Performance - Reddit reported a strong Q2 with revenue increasing by 78% to $500 million and daily active users growing by 21% to 110 million [4]. - The company achieved profitability with a net income of $89 million and generated $111 million in free cash flow [5]. Group 5: Advertising and Product Development - The active advertiser count increased by over 50% year-over-year, and new products like Dynamic Product Ads are yielding a 2x better return on ad spend compared to standard campaigns [5]. - Both performance and brand advertising grew over 80%, indicating broad-based strength across the business [5]. Group 6: AI Relevance and Data Licensing - Reddit's CEO noted that the platform is the most cited domain across all AI models, emphasizing the importance of human-generated conversations for AI training [6]. - Data licensing revenue reached $35 million, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase [6].