Gold Surges Above $3,900 as Shutdown Stalls Data and Fuels Uncertainty

Core Insights - Gold prices surged past $3,900/oz this week as the U.S. government shutdown fueled market uncertainty [8] - Key federal data releases, including the September Jobs Report, were delayed, leaving traders reliant on private surveys [8] - Private payroll and service-sector data showed unexpected weakness, adding to recessionary concerns [8] - Strong risk-off flows supported gold, with futures contracts climbing and holding near record highs [8] Market Dynamics - Gold experienced a significant increase, with spot prices accelerating from an aggressive pickup of $50/oz to a $100 rally by midnight on Monday [4] - The most aggressive swing occurred on Tuesday, where sell orders briefly pushed gold down to support at $3800, but it regained above $3855/oz by market close [5] - The shutdown led to a lack of communication from federal institutions, notably affecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the release of key economic data [6] Economic Indicators - The US Manufacturing PMI report from private enterprises like S&P and ISM showed a marginally higher number for September, yet it remained below the 50.0 breakeven point [7] - The absence of federal data releases created a reliance on private surveys, which indicated unexpected weakness in payroll and service sectors [8]