Nat-Gas Prices Pressured by Mid-October US Warmth

Price Movements - November Nymex natural gas closed down by -0.118 (-3.43%) on Friday, adding to losses from Thursday due to forecasts of warm weather in mid-October, which is expected to reduce heating demand for natural gas [1] - Natural gas prices had previously jumped to a 2.5-month high due to a smaller-than-expected build in weekly gas storage, with inventories rising by +53 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ended September 26, below the expected +64 bcf [2][6] Production and Demand - Higher US natural gas production has been a bearish factor for prices, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by +0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day [3] - US dry gas production was reported at 108.4 bcf/day (+5.4% year-over-year), while lower-48 state gas demand was at 66.4 bcf/day (-7.4% year-over-year) [4] Storage and Supply - The EIA's report indicated that natural gas inventories were +0.4% year-over-year and +5.0% above the 5-year seasonal average, suggesting adequate supplies [6] - As of September 30, gas storage in Europe was reported to be 85% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 90% for this time of year [6] Electricity Output - The Edison Electric Institute reported a +5.96% year-over-year increase in US electricity output for the week ended September 27, reaching 84,530 GWh, which may support gas prices [5]