Crude Prices Settle Higher as the Dollar Slips and Stocks Rally

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices increased on Friday due to a weaker dollar and short covering in energy futures, alongside a rally in the S&P 500 indicating confidence in economic outlook supporting energy demand [2][1] - Concerns over a global supply glut limit gains in crude prices as OPEC+ plans to increase production levels [2][3] Production and Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to discuss fast-tracking supply hikes of approximately 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in November, aiming to reverse a 2-year production cut and restore a total of 2.2 million bpd [3][4] - OPEC's September crude production rose by 400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [3] Market Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a record global oil market surplus of 3.33 million bpd next year, which is 360,000 bpd higher than previous estimates, driven by OPEC+ reviving production [4] - Iraq's agreement to resume oil exports from the Kurdish region could add 500,000 bpd to global supplies, further pressuring crude prices [5] Demand Factors - Reduced crude demand from India, the world's third-largest crude oil importer, is negative for oil prices, with August imports falling by 2.9% year-on-year to 19.6 million metric tons [6] - An increase in crude oil stored on stationary tankers rose by 3.7% week-on-week to 81.95 million barrels, indicating bearish sentiment for oil prices [6]