中国资产暴涨，背后的“推手”是什么？

Core Insights - Chinese assets have seen a significant surge, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rising approximately 3.8% during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, indicating international capital's recognition of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - The recent strength of Chinese assets is attributed to the alignment of prices with their underlying value, as highlighted by the cash flow discount model [2] Investment Evaluation - The investment evaluation methods have been influenced by economist Irving Fisher, who emphasized the importance of future cash flows over mere asset prices, distinguishing professional investors from amateurs [3] - Professional investors focus on the income generated by assets, while amateur investors often rely on price appreciation, which can lead to significant losses if not grounded in cash flow realities [3] Comparative Valuation - As of September 30, the Shanghai Composite Index had a dividend yield of 2.48% and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.6, while the Hang Seng Index had a dividend yield of 2.24% and a P/E ratio of 12.3. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a dividend yield of 0.56% and a P/E ratio of 32, and the Nasdaq Index had a dividend yield of 0.3% and a P/E ratio of 44 [5] - The increasing dividend payout ratios and share buyback activities of leading A-share companies indicate a growing commitment to returning value to shareholders [5] Share Buyback Trends - A-share companies are beginning to adopt share buyback practices, although they lag behind international counterparts like Apple, which has repurchased 13.5% of its shares since August 2020 [6] - If A-share companies align with international practices and implement consistent buybacks, their current valuations may become more attractive [6] Internal Measurement Perspective - Establishing an internal measurement perspective is crucial for investors, as external capital flows provide only a partial view of asset value [7] - Warren Buffett's investment in a farm exemplifies the importance of understanding intrinsic value and expected returns, which can lead to successful investments without specialized knowledge [7] Behavioral Insights - Successful investing relies on a critical mindset and the ability to maintain confidence in one's investment strategy, as emphasized by Benjamin Graham [8] - The behavior of investors is more significant than their investment methods, highlighting the importance of discipline and courage in achieving stable returns [8]