沈建光：需充分重视中国消费出现的七大结构性分化｜国庆大咖谈

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of not only the changes in total consumption metrics but also the structural differentiation within the Chinese consumption market, highlighting both challenges and future potential for consumption growth [1] Group 1: Structural Differentiation in Consumption - Differentiation One: Improvement in goods consumption contrasted with a slowdown in service consumption, with goods retail sales growing by 4.8% year-on-year from January to August, significantly higher than the previous year's 3.2% [2] - Differentiation Two: High-end consumption is cooling while affordable consumption is gaining popularity, as evidenced by a nearly 20% decline in luxury car sales and a 5.4% revenue growth for Shanxi Fenjiu, a mid-range liquor brand [3] - Differentiation Three: The rise of domestic brands at the expense of imported goods, with local brands increasing their market share from 39% in 2012 to 76% by 2024 across various categories [4][5] Group 2: Regional and Group Consumption Trends - Differentiation Four: Consumption growth in first-tier cities is lagging behind that of lower-tier cities, with various factors contributing to this trend, including economic pressures and population changes [6] - Differentiation Five: Social group consumption is underperforming compared to individual consumer spending, with social group consumption growth lagging behind individual consumption since Q2 2023 [7] - Differentiation Six: Low-income groups are experiencing slower consumption growth compared to high-income groups, with the lowest income quintile showing only a 3.5% increase in disposable income [8] Group 3: Consumption Confidence and Policy Response - Differentiation Seven: While hard data on consumption shows recovery, consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 89.0, below the critical threshold of 90 for 28 consecutive months [9][10] - The policy response includes measures to stimulate consumption, such as expanding the scope of trade-in programs and increasing subsidies for service consumption, alongside long-term structural reforms aimed at enhancing consumer spending [11]