“石油小城”房价何以未跌反涨？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Dingbian County is experiencing a significant upward trend, contrasting sharply with the declining prices in major cities like Xi'an, driven by high demand and limited supply [4][5][21]. Group 1: Real Estate Trends - Dingbian County's new housing prices have increased by over 25% in three years, with average prices surpassing 5000 yuan per square meter as of October 2025, compared to less than 4000 yuan in 2022 [4][5]. - In contrast, Xi'an's second-hand housing prices have dropped by 10.1% year-on-year as of September 2025, reflecting a broader trend of declining prices in many first- and second-tier cities [5][20]. - The county's real estate market is characterized by a scarcity of new housing projects, which has contributed to the rapid price increases [18]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Dingbian County is recognized as the largest oil and gas production county in China, with proven oil reserves of 1.618 billion tons and natural gas reserves of 300 billion cubic meters, significantly bolstering its local economy [7][8]. - The local economy heavily relies on the oil industry, which has led to increased disposable income among residents, further fueling demand for housing [8][9]. Group 3: Buyer Demographics - The primary buyers in Dingbian's real estate market include those purchasing homes for marriage and families seeking to secure school placements for their children, indicating a strong demand for housing [9][10]. - The trend of rural population migration to urban areas has intensified, with many families moving to the county for educational opportunities, thereby increasing housing demand [12]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the current upward trend in housing prices, there are concerns about sustainability, with some residents expressing doubts about the long-term viability of the price increases [15][17]. - The potential influx of new housing projects in the coming years may shift the supply-demand balance, leading to uncertainty about future price stability [19].