Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-10-05 10:02Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a slow upward trend since 2025, with significant gains in the third quarter, while the banking sector has experienced a contrasting decline, raising questions about whether the downturn has reached its bottom [2][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 12.76% and 29.25% respectively in Q3, while the ChiNext Index surged by 50.4%, marking a rare quarterly increase [2]. - In contrast, 38 listed banks have collectively declined for three consecutive months since July, with several banks, including Minsheng Bank and Huaxia Bank, experiencing over 20% cumulative pullbacks [2][3]. Fund Flow Dynamics - The decline in bank stocks is attributed to a shift in capital towards high-growth sectors like AI and biotechnology, which have attracted significant new investments, leading to a "siphoning effect" away from the banking sector [2][3]. - Despite the downturn, state-owned banks have not reduced their holdings, indicating that the primary reason for the adjustment may be the temporary halt in buying by state-backed funds [5]. Historical Context - The average maximum drawdown for the China Securities Banking Index over the past decade is 19.34%, with the current drawdown of 14.78% nearing historical maximum levels during structural bull markets [6][7]. Industry Fundamentals - The banking sector has shown robust performance in H1 2025, with over 60% of listed banks reporting growth in both revenue and net profit, reflecting a 5 percentage point increase from the previous year [8]. - Key risk control indicators remain stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.23% and a provision coverage ratio of 238.6%, indicating strong risk management capabilities [8][9]. Investment Appeal - The banking sector continues to offer attractive dividend yields, with many banks providing yields above 4%, making them appealing in a low-interest-rate environment [14][12]. - Long-term institutional investments in banking stocks have increased, with social security funds raising their holdings to 51.71% and insurance funds actively acquiring bank shares [14][15]. Future Outlook - Historical data suggests that bank stocks tend to perform well after the National Day holiday, with a 79% probability of rising in the week following the holiday [18]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see improved performance for bank stocks, with anticipated returns of 10%-15% due to policy support and increased institutional buying [18].