Global Tensions Escalate with Ukraine Attacks; OPEC+ Weighs Oil Hike Amid U.S. Shutdown’s Housing Strain

Group 1: Ukraine Conflict - A new wave of Russian missile and drone attacks occurred on October 5, resulting in at least 5 fatalities and 14 injuries across regions including Lviv and Zaporizhzhia, involving over 50 missiles and approximately 500 drones [2][3] - There was a 36% surge in Russian long-range drone and missile strikes in September compared to August, with a total of 5,638 drones and 185 missiles fired [3][8] - Russian forces likely stockpiled ballistic and cruise missiles during September in preparation for large-scale strikes aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defense systems [3] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ is nearing an agreement for a modest increase in oil supply for November, considering a base case of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), with discussions of larger increases up to 411,000 bpd or 500,000 bpd [4][5] - Global oil prices remain under pressure, with Brent crude trading near $65 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) below $61 [5] - Analysts project a "sizeable surplus" in the oil market for the fourth quarter of 2025 and into early 2026, driven by increased OPEC+ output and softening demand [5] Group 3: D.C. Housing Market - The D.C. housing market is under strain due to a federal government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, affecting approximately 800,000 federal employees and another 700,000 working without pay [6][9] - The median listing price in D.C. plunged nearly 15% annually, with active inventory surging 48.7% year-over-year as of September 2025 [7][9] - The current shutdown is expected to cause delays in federally backed mortgages and could stall sales in flood-prone areas, with potential impacts similar to previous government shutdowns [9]