Workflow
美联储,重磅来袭!降息传出大消息!
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-05 11:01

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is significantly impacting financial markets, with heightened expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve due to economic uncertainties and employment market deterioration [1][2][5]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations indicate a 96.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with an 86.3% probability of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points by December [7]. - The lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, potentially leading to increased pressure for rate cuts [2][3]. Employment Market Concerns - The Trump administration is advancing a second round of large-scale federal employee layoffs, which could exacerbate the already weak employment market [5][6]. - Recent data from ADP indicates a reduction of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, signaling further deterioration in the labor market [6]. - Analysts warn that the ongoing government shutdown and the resulting data void may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to gauge economic conditions accurately, leading to confusion regarding its interest rate strategy [2][3]. Upcoming Federal Reserve Communications - Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak in the coming week, with particular attention on Chairman Powell's comments regarding the government shutdown and its implications for monetary policy [4][5]. - The release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes is also anticipated, which may provide additional insights into the central bank's stance on interest rates [4].