刚刚，黄金、原油拉升！

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged on October 6, reaching a record high of $3920.77 per ounce, marking a 49% increase year-to-date [1] - COMEX gold also hit a new high of $3945.2 per ounce, reflecting strong market demand [2][3] - The recent government shutdown in the U.S. has intensified uncertainty, driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [4] Group 2: ETF Inflows and Predictions - Gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $13.6 billion over the past four weeks, with total inflows exceeding $60 billion for the year, setting a record [4] - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with major banks forecasting potential prices of $4000 to $5000 per ounce [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a 95% probability of a rate cut in October and a 99% probability in December [6] - The current economic environment is seen as restrictive, prompting calls for a more aggressive easing of monetary policy [6] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International oil prices have risen over 1%, with WTI crude reaching $61.85 per barrel and Brent crude at $65.52 per barrel [7][8] - OPEC+ is expected to confirm an increase in oil production by at least 137,000 barrels per day in November, following the abandonment of previous production cuts [10] Group 5: Supply and Price Forecasts - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a potential oversupply in the oil market, predicting that supply could exceed demand significantly by 2026 [10] - Macquarie Group forecasts that Brent crude prices could drop to the $50 per barrel range if oversupply conditions persist [11]