日本央行暗示加息需耐心，紧盯美国关税与工资增长动向

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on the economic prospects but warns of persistent uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before any interest rate hikes [1][2]. Economic Assessment - The Bank of Japan's assessment of eight regions indicates a "moderate recovery or rebound" in the economy, although one region's evaluation was downgraded [1]. - Some businesses are delaying spending plans due to uncertainties surrounding tariff impacts, while others are facing upward pressure on wages due to labor shortages and rising costs [2]. Wage and Capital Expenditure Trends - There is a potential for continued wage growth driven by structural labor shortages, but the actual impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits is just beginning to manifest, complicating wage negotiations for the following year [1][2]. - Many companies plan to increase capital expenditures to optimize operations and meet IT demands, although some are postponing or reviewing their spending plans due to tariff uncertainties [2]. Monetary Policy Context - The next policy meeting of the Bank of Japan is scheduled for October 29-30, where the regional economic assessment will be a key reference for deciding whether to raise the current interest rate of 0.5% [1]. - The recent election of new Liberal Democratic Party president, who supports fiscal expansion and a loose monetary policy, may influence the Bank of Japan's stance on interest rates [2][3]. Market Implications - The new leadership's support for stimulus plans is expected to boost the stock market but may exert pressure on the yen [3]. - Expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's policies could support short-term government bonds, while long-term bonds may face challenges due to concerns over increased fiscal spending [3].