Bitcoin’s Record Rally Fueled by Growing Bets in Options Markets

Core Insights - Bitcoin reached a new record of $125,689, driven by a US government shutdown that increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The shutdown also delayed the release of key economic data, contributing to the surge in Bitcoin and gold prices [1] - Decreased liquidity in crypto markets over the weekend likely fueled Bitcoin's price momentum [2] Investment Trends - Investors invested $3.2 billion into 12 US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week, marking the second-highest inflow since their launch in 2024 [3] - The notional open interest on BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF hit a record $49.8 billion [3] Market Dynamics - Total open interest on Deribit and IBIT is nearing $80 billion, significantly higher than early-2024 levels, indicating increased market activity [4] - Options markets show a bullish skew with over 60% of open interest in call options, reflecting strong conviction among traders [6] Price Projections - Traders anticipate resistance at $135,000, with a potential target of $150,000 if momentum continues [5] - Historically, October has been Bitcoin's best-performing month, with average gains of about 22.5% over the past decade [6]