Former Boston Fed President Rosengren: The Fed will have to rely on 'noisier' data during shutdown

Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown has paused the release of all economic data, including crucial jobs and inflation reports, which the Federal Reserve relies on for monetary policy decisions [1][2] - The absence of federal economic data is creating challenges for the Fed, making it difficult to assess the labor market accurately [2][3] Labor Market Indicators - Initial claims and the ADP report indicate a weaker labor market, but these data points are considered noisier and less reliable than the comprehensive reports from the Labor Department [3][6] - The unemployment report is incomplete without the unemployment survey, limiting the Fed's ability to gauge the actual unemployment rate [5][6] Stock Market Reactions - The stock market appears to be reacting positively to the government shutdown, possibly due to expectations of lower interest rates, despite ongoing concerns about inflation [8][9] - Core PCE inflation was reported just under 3% before the shutdown, and there is an expectation that it may trend upward [9] Bank Mergers and Regulatory Environment - Fifth Third's planned acquisition of Comamera for over $10 billion is indicative of a changing regulatory environment and a trend towards regional bank mergers to achieve economies of scale [10][11][12] - The potential for larger regional banks raises concerns about financial stability and the implications of having "too big to fail" institutions [14] Economic Outlook - The government shutdown could shave a few basis points off GDP, compounded by the uncertainty surrounding government employee layoffs and buyouts [15][16] - The overall economic impact may be more significant due to low consumer confidence and the potential for reduced spending [17]