Gold to Rise 10% by End of 2026, Says Goldman's Struyven

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is expected to rise by 10% to 4300 by the end of next year, driven by strong inflows from central banks and ETF holders, rather than speculative positioning [1] Group 1: Central Bank Diversification - Central banks are underweight in gold, with the Chinese central bank holding about 8% of its reserves in gold compared to a global average of 20% [4] - The freezing of Russian central bank reserves in 2022 has prompted reserve managers to recognize gold as a safe asset [4] - Central bank surveys indicate record-high gold purchase intentions, suggesting a sustained trend of increased gold purchases over the next three years [5] Group 2: ETF Inflows - In September, ETF inflows into gold were six times larger than predictions based on a rates-based model, indicating significant private sector diversification into the gold market [2] - The gold market is approximately 70 times smaller than the US Treasury market, highlighting the potential for additional upside in gold investments [2] Group 3: Cyclical Factors - An additional 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts could further boost ETF holdings in the gold market, as lower rates typically lead to increased gold investments [6]