PepsiCo Sees Momentum Pre-Q3 Earnings: Is This the Right Time to Buy?

Core Viewpoint - PepsiCo, Inc. is anticipated to experience top-line growth with a decline in bottom-line performance in its upcoming third-quarter 2025 report, scheduled for October 9 [1][10]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues stands at $23.9 billion, reflecting a 2.4% decrease from the previous year's figure [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is $2.27, indicating a 1.7% decline from the $2.31 reported in the same quarter last year [2]. Segment Performance - The international business is projected to be a key growth driver, contributing approximately 40% of net revenues, with expected revenue growth of 2% year over year in the International Beverages Franchise segment [5][6]. - The North America Beverages segment is also expected to show momentum, with a 1% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by strong performance from Pepsi Zero Sugar and effective marketing campaigns [7][8]. - The Quaker Foods segment is showing signs of recovery, with initiatives aimed at enhancing value propositions and capturing market share in the health-conscious food category [9]. Cost and Margin Challenges - The North America food business is facing challenges due to subdued demand and shifting consumer preferences, with expected flat revenue performance in the third quarter [13][14]. - Rising supply-chain costs and inflationary pressures are anticipated to negatively impact gross and operating margins, with projections indicating a contraction of 20 basis points in adjusted gross margin and 60 basis points in adjusted operating margin year over year [16][17]. Stock Performance and Valuation - PepsiCo shares have increased by 5.6% over the past three months, outperforming the broader industry and Consumer Staples sector, but underperforming the S&P 500 index [18][20]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 16.93X, which is below the S&P 500 average of 23.35X, indicating a valuation discount despite solid revenue growth [21][23]. Investment Outlook - The company has consistently delivered revenue growth and profitability, supported by a diverse product portfolio and global presence [26]. - However, external risks such as inflation, operational challenges, and changing consumer behavior necessitate a cautious investment outlook [27]. - Despite these challenges, PepsiCo's strong fundamentals, innovative product offerings, and digital transformation initiatives position it well for long-term growth potential [28][29].