Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR): A Bull Case Theory

Group 1 - Shift4 Payments, Inc. is positioned as a software-led commerce platform with a market cap of $7.5 billion and is growing at approximately 30% annually [2] - The company aims to achieve around $1 billion in free cash flow by 2027, supported by operating leverage and a high-return-on-invested-capital model [2] - The stock is currently mispriced as investors view it as a hyper-competitive vertical payments processor, overlooking its unique value proposition [3][5] Group 2 - Shift4 processes payments for about one-third of U.S. sit-down restaurants, 40% of hotels, and nearly three-quarters of professional sports stadiums, highlighting its critical infrastructure role [4] - The company operates both front-end software for merchants and back-end payment processing, ensuring multiple monetization points across the value chain [4] - There is a strong alignment with the founder, who remains actively involved and has been purchasing shares in the open market [2][5] Group 3 - Investors may not fully recognize Shift4's evolution into a global commerce platform, which presents an attractive investment opportunity with significant rerating potential [5] - The stock price has depreciated approximately 2.8% since previous bullish coverage, but the underlying thesis remains valid, focusing on embedded infrastructure and free cash flow trajectory [6]